# Satellite Carnage

Jesse did some analysis to see the likelihood of anyone getting hit by that falling satellite.

check it out:

WORST CASE SCENARIO:

Assumptions:

No one is stacked, everyone is spread out (no two-story bldgs)
Everyone is adult (worst case, takes more area)
Avg adult human height: 166.5 cm (i took wiki’s stats by M/F and race, and average everything)
Avg adult human width: 46 cm (total guess)
People are rectangles lying down
The satellite is < or = size of a person (not true, but whatever) World Pop: 6.5 billion Earth Surface Area: 510,065,600 km^2 From that, I get a 1 in 100,000 chance that a person will be struck by the satellite Also, the chances that a PARTICULAR person will get hit (i.e. YOU) is 1.5*10-15, or 1.5 in a quadrillion NOT LIKELY BUD, and that's worst case. Well, the satellite probably has a bigger hit radius, let's say 10-12 ft, (twice the size of a person lying down), so then it would be 1 in 50K for any person, and 3 in a quadrillion for you, worst worst case. A commenter on this page pegs it at around 1 in 82,000 by a different method (so we’re pretty close).

Of course, if people ARE in a high-rise, and it comes straight down out of the sky (unlikely) in that location, it could easily take out a few hundo for MAX carnage.

### 3 thoughts on “Satellite Carnage”

• 2/8/2008 at 12:54 pm